Federal Reserve Bank Archives - Sycamore Financial Group

Fourth Quarter 2024 Commentary

Hello from Sycamore,

Notice

Recently, some of you may have noticed a small deposit to your account(s). These happen periodically and are generated from class action suits filed against companies that you now hold or have held in the past. We automatically file for these on your behalf and when the money is distributed (which is usually several years after the action is filed), we then credit your account(s) with any amounts you are entitled to.

Performance and the Markets

Another year has passed and for investors, 2024 was a very good year. Inflation seems to be under control or at least much better than 2022-2023 and the Federal Reserve Bank has started lowering interest rates. This bodes well for 2025 and we’re looking forward to the coming year.

Except for a few giant tech stocks, known as the ‘Magnificent Seven’, the markets appear ‘fairly’ valued in our opinion. Earnings continue to grow for most companies in your portfolio(s) and it’s easy to find great companies at what we feel are selling for rational prices. Supporting all of this is the growth of our economy. The Atlanta Federal Reserve Bank is now expecting Q-4 growth of about 2.4% annualized growth, and this follows a good third quarter of about 3%.

Our average 100% stock account gained about 11% (gross of fees) for 2024. Considering the performance we had in 2023, we’re very pleased. We normally look for an average of about 9% to 10%, so 11% is a plus year. Remember that when investing, there are two considerations – Risk and Return. Since you have entrusted us with your investments, we look at Risk first. If the Risk is too great, we simply don’t jump in no matter how shiny the stone appears. This philosophy has helped us outperform the S&P 500 index over the past 25 years.

The Economy

I mentioned above that the underlying platform on which businesses rely is the growth of our economy. We think the Federal Reserve Bank has done a good job of managing our economy during the past two years while they have been combating inflation. About two years ago the Federal Reserve Bank initiated something we’ve not seen before when they were attacking inflation. Not only did they raise interest rates, but they also reduced our money supply, which had grown sharply during COVID-19. This plan seems to have had the desired effect. We’ve slowed the inflation rate without pushing the economy into a recession. Speaking of recession, does anyone remember how a recession was all but assured when the Federal Reserve Bank started raising interest rates in 2023? We don’t hear much about a pending recession anymore and we feel the Fed should receive credit for what – so far – seems to be a soft landing.

We seem to be getting inflation under control (currently about 2.5% vs almost 9% in 2022), Auto sales continue to increase, the dollar remains strong, retail sales continue to grow, and we’re creating jobs (about 200,000 per month according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics), and unemployment is holding at about 4%. Housing starts have been declining, but we’re hopeful that this will improve as interest rates decline. On balance, we’re optimistic about the economy and share prices.

Purchase and Sale Activity During Q-4

Purchases – Cirrus Logic, Centene, Dentsply Sirona, and Siemens LTD.
Sales – United Natural Foods.

Thanks for your business and trust!

Sincerely,
The Sycamore Financial Group Team

*Data not audited
**Results reported gross of fees
***Past performance does not assure future results. Investors cannot invest directly in the stock market indexes such as the S&P 500. Investment return and principal value of an investment will fluctuate. Investor value, when sold may be worth more or less than their original cost.

By Sycamore Financial Group|2025-01-29T00:40:58-05:00January 29th, 2025|2025 Newsletter|0 Comments

How Does Inflation Impact My Savings

Hello from Sycamore,

Inflation is a topic that we’re all hearing about lately. The Federal Reserve Bank (the Fed) has started to raise interest rates to help fight our current inflation. The Fed has a long-term inflation target of 2.0%. To simplify, this means that if a Coca-Cola costs you $1.00 today, then next year that same soda should cost you $1.02. When looking at the effect of inflation for a single year it seems insignificant, let’s look at the longer-term effects. Assume you have $100,000 sitting in cash earning no interest, what will this buy you 15 years from now assuming an average inflation rate of 2.0% each year? It would have a buying power of about $74,082 in today’s dollars. In other words, nearly a 25% reduction in purchasing power due to inflation. While your savings account balance is not declining, the amount of goods and services your money can buy, or your purchasing power, is reduced.

During your annual meetings, we update your financial plans and typically discuss your cash on hand and your emergency fund. This is a different number for everyone but typically somewhere between 3-6 months of living expenses is a good rule of thumb. Also, at different stages of your life, the number that’s right for you may change based on your situation and is a number that also coincides with your risk tolerance. The best number is the one that helps you sleep at night.

How can you lessen the impact of inflation? Our best advice is to keep your emergency fund such as a savings account or money market fund in a low-risk account that earns a competitive yield (several are yielding about 2% today). Then, to build wealth over the long term, try to maintain a well-diversified portfolio of various financial assets that have the potential to grow at a rate greater than inflation.

As always, never hesitate to contact us with any questions or concerns.

Thank you for your continued trust and support,

Sycamore Financial Group

***This article is distributed for general informational and educational purposes and is not intended to constitute legal, tax, accounting, or investment advice.***

By Sycamore Financial Group|2022-09-16T00:31:32-04:00September 14th, 2022|2022 Newsletters|0 Comments

Thoughts on the Economy

Hello from Sycamore,

COVID-19 has been a shock to our economy and our lives. As a result, the Federal Reserve Bank had to implement swift and significant monetary policy changes. During the onset of the pandemic (March/April 2020), there were worldwide shutdowns that caused many to lose their jobs, miss paychecks that were necessary to pay bills, and companies shuttered. The Fed knew that they needed to take an approach that would spur the economy as much as possible as the country started to reopen. They did this by reducing the reserve requirements for depository institutions, they bought bonds in the open market, and they reduced the interest rate to nearly zero. All these measures made the economy flush with cash, borrowing cheap, and saving not lucrative.

The extra cash that these changes have generated has spurred inflation, but inflation is not always a bad thing. The Federal Reserve has a long-term target inflation rate of 2%. The right amount of inflation in a stable economy can influence expansion. While ongoing inflation issues are certainly possible short-term, we think prolonged inflation or hyperinflation seems unlikely.

If inflation would persist, however, there are a few ways that the Fed can help slow economic activity. These are through changing reserve requirements at depository institutions, open market operations, and setting the discount rate.

Reserve requirements refer to how much of a bank’s total deposits must be kept at the bank at the close of business every day. For example, if a bank has just $500 in deposits and the reserve requirements were 10% then they would only be able to loan out $450. Changing the requirement changes the money supply.
Open market operations are when the Fed either buys or sells government securities in the open market. If they sell securities, they are removing money from the economy by exchanging securities for cash. If they buy securities, they are adding money to the economy by exchanging cash for securities.
The discount rate is the rate that the Federal Reserve would pay to banks for depositing funds with the Fed overnight. This effectively sets a floor on the interest rate and the rate trickles down and influences other interest rates on loans such as car loans, personal loans, mortgages, business loans, etc.

All these measures can be used in different proportions to influence the economy and at various times or simultaneously.

Thank you for your business and trust,

Sycamore Financial Group

***This article is distributed for general informational and educational purposes and is not intended to constitute legal, tax, accounting, or investment advice.***

By Sycamore Financial Group|2022-07-21T12:29:41-04:00February 14th, 2022|2022 Newsletters|0 Comments